In Formula 1, the fastest car doesn't always win, but having the most statistically robust strategy maximises the probability of success. This session demonstrates how to build a Bayesian race strategy engine using PyMC and FastF1 data, shifting from simple point estimates to Uncertainty Quantification (UQ).

We will focus on the technical challenge of "updating" our models throughout a race weekend. By treating tire degradation and track evolution as probability distributions, we can move from Friday’s practice laps to Sunday’s pit-wall decisions with mathematical precision. We’ll explore how to refine our model's "beliefs" in real-time as new data points roll in from Qualifying and the race itself.

Technical highlights include:
* Sequential Updating: Using free practice "long runs" to inform priors for race-day stint simulations.
* Hierarchical Regression: Modeling tire-wear "drop-off" curves while accounting for epistemic uncertainty in track temperature and fuel loads.
* Bayesian Decision Theory: Moving beyond "best-case" scenarios to Expected Utility, calculating optimal pit windows under traffic constraints.

This code-centric talk is for data scientists and engineers interested in probabilistic programming and decision-making under pressure.

Wesley is a Lead/Senior Data Scientist at KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, where he develops next-generation demand forecasting models with a strong focus on time series. Previously, he led a Machine Learning traineeship at Xccelerated (Xebia), mentoring engineers and scientists through tutoring and live coding, alongside various consultancy projects.

A three-time PyData speaker, Wesley is passionate about Bayesian modeling and making forecasting techniques practical. He holds master’s degrees in Econometrics (VU Amsterdam) and Engineering & Policy Analysis (TU Delft), and a bachelor’s in Aviation Engineering.
Outside of work, he is a devoted Formula 1 fan, fascinated by the sport’s rich data streams and the opportunities they create for advanced modeling. He has attended Grands Prix in Zandvoort, Spa, and Spielberg.